Prior Distribution
Treatment effect used to power a standard trial
Aligned with TPP (
2.00
)
2.00
Benchmark before the Phase-2 study
15.0%
Calibrate Prior to Benchmark
❌
Not calibrated
Phase 2 Outcome
Observed Mean Difference
2.20
Sample Size (per arm)
100
Phase 3 Study Design
Sample Size (per arm)
300
Success Criteria
TPP
2.00
Significance level fixed at one-sided
α = 0.025
, matching the standard Phase-3 pivotal design.
Belief updating: prior → likelihood → posterior
Predictive distribution for Phase-3 estimated effect